By Nathan Seigner

On the 19^th of May, the UK will host a summit designed to discuss important matters with the EU. This is the first time such a summit has occurred since the UK left the Union in 2020. Touted as the Brexit Summit this is an important bilateral meeting where top issues will be discussed. Security will unsurprisingly be at the top of the agenda, along with trade matters and a potential youth mobility scheme.

This signals a shift in UK foreign policy with Starmer’s Labour government more open to UK-EU collaboration than the Conservative predecessors. But what exactly does this entail?

Security

Security is undoubtedly going to be the focus of the meeting. Since Russia launched their invasion of Ukraine in 2022 security has been a priority. This has been heightened through the instability caused by the Trump administration and has so far been the area which has seen the most EU-UK cooperation.

Although there has been a lot of meetings on this topic, the summit creates the opportunity to for the UK to formally join the EU on a security pact. This could allow the UK to participate in the EU’s joint arms procurement scheme. This scenario would benefit both parties as it would allow the UK to benefit from the economies of scales in the procurement of arms. This would also allow the UK to strengthen its security ties with the EU, something Starmer has put at the centre of his foreign policy.

On the EU front, this would increase the pool of firms that produce arms and tap into UK operational experience. This makes such a deal seem likely and positive outcome for all parties involved. There are some drawbacks, most notably Labour’s cautious approach to foreign policy which could limit the extent and impact of the pact.

Trade

Trade will undoubtedly be a high priority of the summit. Since Brexit imposed trade barriers on EU-UK trade, imports and exports have seen a decline. This is due to the additional red tape that UK firms now had to pay when trading with the EU. The UK still feels the serious economic impact to this day.

A deal that reduces trade barriers with their biggest trading partner would be hugely beneficial for the UK economy and could give Starmer another trade win following recent deals with India and the US. This once again seems like a logical win-win scenario for the parties involved. This would potentially expand on the current EU-UK trade and cooperation agreement that was signed following Brexit. This deal prevented a no deal Brexit and allowed continued trading between the EU and UK. However, there is clearly a lot of space to expand on it. Making trade smoother through reduction of barriers and red tape seems like a mutually beneficial goal.

Having the UK join the customs union is the most straight-forward way to achieve this. It would allow the UK to have increased market access without all the red tape while not having free movement of people that Single Market membership would entail. Politicians in the UK backed this proposal, most notably Davies, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, the third party of the UK parliament. Starmer and Labour have actively opposed this, making it unlikely, but they could pursue smaller, more targeted deals instead. This will most likely include new deals on fisheries which has been a long-standing dispute. It depends on what each party’s goal in these negotiations are as the EU could look to make concessions with fisheries in order to gain increased access to UK financial services.

Youth Mobility Scheme

This leads to the most interesting and uncertain policies discussed at the Summit. As previously mentioned, the UK rejoining the single market is unlikely. This is due to the free movement of people, one of the most prolific Brexit talking points. However there have been discussions about a potential youth mobility scheme that would allow young Brits to live in the EU and allow young Europeans the same.

This gives Starmer a chance at a political win in the eyes of the British youth who have been repeatedly let down. It is unclear what this will exactly entail as there are many ways that such a scheme could be implemented. Current political pressure in the UK has seen labour announce a crackdown in immigration. The UK government uses net migration to monitor levels of people entering the country and this deal could ease it by allowing young Brits to go live in Europe which will cause a drop in net migration. It is unsure what this deal will hold but the EU has been insistent on creating a framework that allows easier access to the EU for British young professionals.

A Return to Normality?

These are exciting options for rebuilding EU-UK relations post-Brexit but there are some clear roadblocks to success. Firstly, political pressure in the UK has shaped the actions of this current Labour government. Starmer has lightly pandered to the right-wing of the country on issues such as immigration. This is a clear block on a potential youth mobility scheme.

This is also clear with Starmer’s approach to the US and the Trump administration. Starmer has prioritised UK-US relations over UK-EU relations, a move that makes little economic sense. The UK trades three times more with the EU than the US. This prioritisation of the US may be for increased defence guarantees which have become unstable during Trump’s second term. This seems misplaced as the one domain the UK has worked the most on with the EU is defence.

The mostly likely reason for this remains on public opinion. Since Brexit there has been a shift in priorities in foreign relations away from the EU towards the US. The half-baked trade deal the UK signed with the US displays this perfectly. This may be the factor that jeopardises the full potential of the summit. This is where the importance of the summit lies; it’s a chance to reset an important mutually beneficial partnership.

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The impact of Trump and his 51^st state rhetoric was cataclysmic on the outcome of the election. The Conservative leader Poilievre was branded as the Canadian Trump during his 2024 rise. This ultimately was a key factor in his failure to win the election. It cannot be understated how important Trudeau stepping down was for the Liberals to win the election. These two factors culminated in a Liberal win, although they will lead as a minority government. This also saw a Conservative collapse, despite the increase in seats. One that saw their leader lose his seat in Carleton for the first time in 21 years.

How does this result affect the EU? Carney is a best-case scenario for the EU. He aligns well in values which is vital in a changing world order. His profile is what makes him so interesting. He built strong global and European connections throughout his distinguished career in finance. First as Governor of the Bank of Canada and later as Governor of the Bank of England. This makes him a true technocrat, a world away from the Trump administration filled with news anchors and businessmen.

We already know somewhat what to expect from his tenure as prime minister from the trial period after Trudeau stepped down. The guarantee is that Carney will stand up to Trump, he has made this very clear. Unlike world leaders who have set out to appease Trump to gain tariff relief, Carney has made it clear that this is not his strategy.

This leaves the EU in a very interesting position. Carney is the favourable candidate for the EU27 and he will facilitate open trade, maintain liberal values and continue a strong partnership with one major caveat; his priorities. Carney and Canada have their plate full with the US right now, and understandably so. Trump and his administration have continually alluded to annexing Canada and making it the 51^st state. This has caused the decline of one of the strongest international friendships. Europe needs to step up and work closely with Canada to be that friend.

As the EU navigates a world in which the diplomatic influence of the US is changing dramatically, there is a chance to make a real statement with EU-Canada relations. Current trade between the US and Canada has become increasingly volatile. The US is a huge trade partner of Canada accounting for a significant share of their trade. This includes high levels of agricultural exports necessary to feed Canada. The EU, always looking to export, could fill some of these gaps and provide Canada with high quality and more stable trade, something I’m sure Carney and his government would welcome.

Beyond trade this is a big chance for the EU and the EU27 to show their intentions on the global stage by supporting the new Canadian government. The EU needs to be the ones to extend the branch in these uncertain times for our transatlantic allies. Trying to appease Trump is a futile effort. This is the EU’s chance to make a statement about their intentions in a world of Trump diplomacy, to strengthen their friendship with one of the true value allied countries in the world.

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