Mark Carney and the Liberals in Canada has just pulled off an unprecedented political come back to win the 2025 Canadian election. This was not supposed to happen, with the Liberals looking down and out at the end of the 2024. Polls showed the conservatives maintaining a strong lead, cruising to a victory, until they didn’t.
The impact of Trump and his 51st state rhetoric was cataclysmic on the outcome of the election. The Conservative leader Poilievre was branded as the Canadian Trump during his 2024 rise. This ultimately was a key factor in his failure to win the election. It cannot be understated how important Trudeau stepping down was for the Liberals to win the election. These two factors culminated in a Liberal win, although they will lead as a minority government. This also saw a Conservative collapse, despite the increase in seats. One that saw their leader lose his seat in Carleton for the first time in 21 years.
How does this result affect the EU? Carney is a best-case scenario for the EU. He aligns well in values which is vital in a changing world order. His profile is what makes him so interesting. He built strong global and European connections throughout his distinguished career in finance. First as Governor of the Bank of Canada and later as Governor of the Bank of England. This makes him a true technocrat, a world away from the Trump administration filled with news anchors and businessmen.
We already know somewhat what to expect from his tenure as prime minister from the trial period after Trudeau stepped down. The guarantee is that Carney will stand up to Trump, he has made this very clear. Unlike world leaders who have set out to appease Trump to gain tariff relief, Carney has made it clear that this is not his strategy.
This leaves the EU in a very interesting position. Carney is the favourable candidate for the EU27 and he will facilitate open trade, maintain liberal values and continue a strong partnership with one major caveat; his priorities. Carney and Canada have their plate full with the US right now, and understandably so. Trump and his administration have continually alluded to annexing Canada and making it the 51st state. This has caused the decline of one of the strongest international friendships. Europe needs to step up and work closely with Canada to be that friend.
As the EU navigates a world in which the diplomatic influence of the US is changing dramatically, there is a chance to make a real statement with EU-Canada relations. Current trade between the US and Canada has become increasingly volatile. The US is a huge trade partner of Canada accounting for a significant share of their trade. This includes high levels of agricultural exports necessary to feed Canada. The EU, always looking to export, could fill some of these gaps and provide Canada with high quality and more stable trade, something I’m sure Carney and his government would welcome.
Beyond trade this is a big chance for the EU and the EU27 to show their intentions on the global stage by supporting the new Canadian government. The EU needs to be the ones to extend the branch in these uncertain times for our transatlantic allies. Trying to appease Trump is a futile effort. This is the EU’s chance to make a statement about their intentions in a world of Trump diplomacy, to strengthen their friendship with one of the true value allied countries in the world.
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